War

On Wednesday morning I went to work and was reading the news. I had read all the news stories, mainly about Hamas and Gaza and prisoner negotiations and then at about 10 o'clock, a newsflash appeared on the Jerusalem Post website. Hezbollah was resuming Katyusha fire on the north of Israel. This was a frightening headline, but I didn't have time to explore deeper. My group was going to meet with a group of Palestinians who run a newspaper for youth to give them a non-violent outlet for expression. As I waited for the cab, I started to speculate. All these weeks, everybody had been concerned about Kassams from Gaza. Suddenly, that story began to seem irrelavent.

I got in the cab and the cabdriver was listening to the news in Hebrew. One of my Hebrew speaking friends gasped. "Hezbollah says they have two Israeli prisoners hostage," she said. I asked the cabdriver if the report was confirmed. I found out that it wasn't. I asked him if he believed them. He said he wasn't sure yet.

I got out of the cab at around 10:45 for my meeting. I sat down at the conference table. "Now, we have two fronts," one of my right-wing friends said. The next two and a half hours we talked with the Palestinian kids. It was much more uplifting than the last meeting. These were smart kids. They offered rational arguments. The main argument was about the legitimacy of Hamas. The whole time I was wondering what was going on with Lebanon.

On the cab ride back, I asked the driver about it. It was about 2:15. I asked him if he believed that Hezbollah had captured the soldiers. He said, "Of course." Its unclear whether there had been confirmation or he just believed it himself.

At work, my Israeli co-workers were very pessimistic. This can only get worse was the attitude. I took another cab at about 7:30 p.m. This cabdriver spoke about as much English as I speak Hebrew. I tried to ask him about the news. We could only agree on two words: "Not good."

After work, I walked the dogs that I'm watching this weekend and then went to dinner with one of my Israeli friends. We talked about the situation. She agreed that things would get worse, but that Israel had to respond in a way that would really hurt these guys. We talked about how depressing the day was. She talked about how depressed she was during the Intifada.

Yesterday, I read the news very carefully and thoroughly. It was bad. In the morning, I took the garbage downstairs, but the garbage can was full. So, I put my garbage bag next to the can. A few minutes later, a man came up speaking angrily in Hebrew. Apparently, they thought the garbage bag was a bomb. Things were tense.

I continued reading the news. First, I learned that Hezbollah was using rockets with a longer range than previously expected. There was speculation that if they possess Fajr-5 rockets, they could almost reach Tel Aviv, putting 30 percent of the Israeli population in rocket range. Israel was bombing targets in Lebanon. Still, the IDF was avoiding the word "war." "High volume conflict" was the term of choice. Then, Katyushas nailed Nahariya, a major city, killing a woman. I thought of my previous trip up north, where I went to a Kibbutz overlooking the Lebanese border. I remembered them talking about the days when they basically lived in bomb shelters.

Later in the day, Katyushas hit Tzfat. Tzfat was one of the first places I ever went to in Israel. It is home of the Caballa, a city with a real spiritual feeling. My Orthodox friend informed me that it is the second holiest city in Israel. I thought how the international reaction would be vastly different if somebody bombed Medina.

Later, Hezbollah threatened to hit Haifa. Haifa is one of my favorite cities in Israel. I was actually planning on going there this weekend.

Before work, I talked to my boss about security. He said that he expected more terrorist attempts, but he felt safe because of the security fence.

Finally, I left work. A friend called me and informed that Haifa had been hit. I knew that that meant this was no longer a "high volume conflict."

I think the important thing to remember when analyzing this conflict (including the Gaza conflict) is that Gaza and Lebanon are not the targets. The real problem is in Syria and Iran.

You can't analyze this story without looking at the context. Right now, Iran is being pressured by the world community to give up its nuclear program. A few weeks ago, there was an interesting news story. Syria and Iran had signed a defense agreement. Next, about 20 days ago, Hamas creates a major escalation with Israel, going into Israeli sovereign territory, killing soldiers and kidnapping another. The architect of the Hamas plan is widely believed to be Khaled Mashaal, who is harbored in Syria. It was very telling that after the kidnapping, the IAF flew planes over the house of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president. Israel knew that the release of Gilad Shalit could not be secured in Gaza, but in Damascus.

Then, a few days ago, the attack comes from Lebanon. Not from Lebanon specifically, but from Hezbollah. To understand Hezbollah, its important to follow its funding. By all accounts, Hezbollah receives its weapons and funding from Iran. Syria is the intermediary, allowing weapons and money to flow freely into southern Lebanon in exchange for political support. It's not surprising that Hezbollah is openly pro-Syrian. It's also not surprising that after the Hezbollah attack, Olmert and the cabinet once again pointed the finger at Syria. While Olmert said that he held the Lebanese government responsible, he also said that he hoped the military operation would "echo in the right places" (read: Damascus). It's clear that Olmert understands that just as he had to do with the Hamas situation, he had to pressure Syria.

Yet, it all goes back to that defense agreement. Today, I read that Ahmadinejad threatened Israel that Iran would get involved with the war if Israel attacked Syria. Thus, unless Israel wants a war with the entire Middle East, it cannot attack the source of its security problems.

Iran and Syria wanted war in the Middle East for a few reasons. One, they are both openly anti-Israel. Two, another Middle Eastern war could take the pressure off of Iran's nuclear program, giving Iran an opportunity to balance Israeli power in the region. By funding terrorism, they have found a way to fight this war without going head-to-head with the IDF.

The picture is very bleak right now. As far as my daily life goes, though, things are relatively quiet in Jerusalem. Hopefully they stay that way.